Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The June Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of June 25, 2012:
An excerpt from the May 24 update titled “Index forecasts weaker growth” :
The May update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, slowing to 2.0% during the summer months. While employment, housing (mostly the multifamily sector) and consumer spending are slowly recovering, concerns about the Eurozone and world growth continue.
As of 6/22/12 (incorporating data through 6/15/12) the WLI was at 121.3 and the WLI, Gr. was at -3.5%.
A chart of the WLI, Gr. since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of June 22 titled “ECRI Recession Call Update: Weekly Leading Index Slips Again” :
Here is the latest chart, depicting 6-16-10 to 6-16-12:
As per the June 21 release, the LEI was at 95.8 and the CEI was at 104.3 in May.
An excerpt from the June 21 release:
Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The LEI rose in May, reversing the slight decline in April. Weakness in the average workweek in manufacturing, stock prices and consumer expectations kept the LEI from rising further. Its six-month growth rate remains in expansionary territory and well above its growth at the end of 2011, pointing to a relatively low risk of a downturn in the second half of 2012.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of June 21, titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Up .3% in May” :
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1316.35 as this post is written