America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative …
On March 28 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Here is the most recent chart. This chart was last updated on June 30, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 6-24-11 on a weekly basis. The present level …
I think that the relatively poor “price action” of various financial stocks is notable. It is one of many current indications that overall stock market health is not as strong as a casual glance at the major indices would indicate. Below is a chart featuring the XLF (the financial ETF) on a daily basis since …
On June 27 The Wall Street Journal published an article titled “Stocks Fall. Optimism Stands Tall.” As seen in this article: Analysts expect the S&P 500 companies to earn $99.86 a share in aggregate this year, up 2.3% from their April 1 estimate, according to FactSet. Strategists expect $95.24, according to John Butters, senior earnings …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The June Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of June 23, 2011: – The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An …
On Wednesday June 22 Ben Bernanke gave his scheduled Press Conference. Overall, I found his remarks less notable than that of his April 27 Press Conference, which I commented upon in the April 28 post titled “Ben Bernanke’s April 27 Press Conference – My Comments.” Here are Ben Bernanke’s comments I found most notable, although …
On June 22 MacroMarkets released its June 2011 Home Price Expectations Survey (pdf) results. This Survey is now done on a quarterly basis. The accompanying chart is seen below: (click on chart image to enlarge) As one can see from the above chart, the average expectation is that not only has the residential real estate …
Recently McKinsey released their “Economic Conditions Snapshot, June 2011” As stated in the survey: Over the past three months, executives around the world have grown more pessimistic about their nations’ economies: compared with three months ago, a smaller share say their economies improved over the past six months, and slightly more expect worsening conditions over the …
On June 14 the Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey was released for the 2nd quarter. The June Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey was released on June 8. Both contain a variety of statistics regarding how executives view business and economic conditions. In the CEO survey, of particular interest is the CEO Economic Outlook Index, which …
The June 9, 2011 Livingston Survey (pdf) contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: June 30, 2011 1340 Dec. 30, 2011 1380 June 29, 2012 1413.5 Dec. 31, 2012 1463.5 These figures represent the median value across the 35 forecasters on the …