America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on February 23, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 2-17-12 on a …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they depict such a tenuous situation now – 33 months after the official (as per the 9-20-10 NBER announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These charts raise a lot …
I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q4 2012 conference call transcript (pdf) dated February 21, 2012. I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices. I have previously commented on their quarterly results; these previous posts are found under the “paycheck to paycheck” tag. Here are various excerpts that I …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The February Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of February 21, 2012: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt from the February 6 update titled “Index …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief sixth update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger. There are many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature, and many lack …
In previous posts I have discussed the Bond Bubble and its many facets. Since my last update on August 15, 2011 (“The Bond Bubble – Update“), the yield on the 10-Year Treasury has roughly been in the 1.7%-2.4% range. This is seen in the 3-year daily chart, LOG-basis, as shown below: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart …
On Monday, February 13, John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, gave a speech titled “The Federal Reserve’s Mandate and Best Practice Monetary Policy.” Although I don’t agree with many aspects of the speech, I found various aspects to be notable. I would like to highlight one excerpt in particular, …
The January NFIB Small Business Optimism was released February 14. The headline of the Press Release is “Small Business Confidence in a Lull.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased .1 points in January, rising to 93.9. Here are some excerpts from the report that I find particularly notable: Historically, optimism remains at recession levels. While owners …
The Philadelphia Fed First Quarter 2012 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on February 10. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following expectations: GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2012 : 2.3% full-year 2013 : 2.7% full-year 2014 : …