On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief sixth update to that post.
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger. There are many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature, and many lack recognition, some completely so.
My views of this danger, and its implications regarding the financial markets and economy as a whole, were last discussed in the post of February 2, 2012, titled “Building Financial Danger – February 2, 2012 Update.”
In that post, I reiterated a point I first made on January 11 :
…my analyses indicate that the danger inherent in the financial system has reached a level at which a stock market crash – that would also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well – has reached a level at which a near-term crash is (at least) a significant concern.
(note: the “next crash” has outsized significance, as discussed in the post of January 6, “The Next Crash And Its Significance“)
Since that February 2 post, there have been additional causes for concern, seen in many technical (analysis), sentiment and fundamental measures. Various of these measures have been mentioned in this blog.
As reference, below is a 13-month daily chart of the S&P500, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma:
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1364.58 as this post is written