America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The February Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 13, 2012. The headline is “Rosier View Has Familiar Ring.” The commentary largely focuses on the economic forecasts of 2011 and their accuracy, as well as thoughts as to the economic characteristics of 2012. Additionally, within the article was a link that detailed …
In the last post (“4 Confidence Charts – February 13, 2012 Update“) I displayed four charts indicating various long-term consumer and small business confidence readings as compared to the S&P500. Doug Short had a blog post of February 10 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment Declines in Preliminary Survey“) in which he presents the Conference Board and University …
Here are four charts reflecting confidence survey readings. These are from the SentimenTrader.com site. I find these charts valuable as they provide a long-term history of each survey, which is rare. Each survey chart is plotted in blue, below the S&P500: (click on each chart to enlarge image) Conference Board Consumer Confidence, last updated 1-31-12: – …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on February 9, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 2-3-12 on a …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart from Doug Short’s blog post of February 8 …
On February 7, Gallup released a poll titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Climbs for Fifth Straight Month.” A few notable excerpts: Americans’ confidence in the economy improved for the fifth month in a row in January, with Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index reaching -27, its highest point since May of last year. Americans, however, are not yet as …
I have frequently commented how my overall analysis indicates that our economic situation is of high complexity. This complexity also applies to movements in the financial markets. As such, predicting the timing of various major stock market events, such as major tops, bottoms, and especially “crashes” is difficult. That being said, a variety of factors …
This post is an update to previous posts concerning food stamps. The program is officially called “Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program,” or SNAP. As stated on the SNAP website, “As of Oct. 1, 2008, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is the new name for the federal Food Stamp Program.” The data was last updated February 1, 2012, reflecting November 2011 levels. …
In yesterday’s post (“Notable Technical And Sentiment Extremes In The Stock Market“) I mentioned the VIX level of 20 and its significance. I first wrote of the VIX level of 20 as an important demarcation in the discussions of the VIX in 2009. It continues to be an important level, serving both as technical support …