America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
In the June 29, 2011 post (“Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action”) I wrote the following: I think that the relatively poor “price action” of various financial stocks is notable. It is one of many current indications that overall stock market health is not as strong as a casual glance at the major indices would …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The September Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of September 24, 2012: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of 9/21/12 (incorporating data through 9/14/12) the WLI was at …
On September 20, the Zillow September 2012 Home Price Expectations Survey (pdf) results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. An image from the brief on the September 2012 Survey, displaying survey responses by quartile, is seen below: (click on chart image to enlarge) Other charts are also seen in the brief. As one can …
In the September 20 post (“Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 2Q 2012“) I displayed a long-term chart depicting Total Household Net Worth as a percentage of GDP. For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1949:Q4 to 2012:Q2). The last value (as of September 21, …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on September 20, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to September 14, …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief 16th update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk blog post of September 20, 2012 titled “Fed’s Q2 Flow of Funds: Household Mortgage Debt down $1 Trillion from Peak.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from The Federal Reserve Flow of Funds 2Q 2012 report: (click on chart to enlarge image) …
Yesterday, FedEx conducted their Q1 2013 Earnings Conference call. A New York Times article dated September 18, titled “FedEx Lowers Forecast, Citing Weak Economy” summarizes various aspects of FedEx’s results and outlook. While I found several comments and forecasts to be interesting, I found a couple of statements by Frederick W. Smith regarding global trade, …
In the September 20, 2010 post I first highlighted the lack of significant long-term growth in Real Median Income. Doug Short, in his September 18 blog post titled “U.S. Household Incomes: A 44-Year Perspective,” has a variety of charts and commentary on various facets of Household Income distributions and growth. One chart, seen below, seems …