America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here are four charts reflecting confidence survey readings. These are from the SentimenTrader.com site. I find these charts valuable as they provide a long-term history of each survey, which is rare. Each survey chart is plotted in blue, below the S&P500: (click on each chart to enlarge image) Conference Board Consumer Confidence, last updated 9-28-10: …
On October 1, I wrote a post about the Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey and the Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey. Subsequent to that post, the Conference Board released its 3rd Quarter CEO Confidence Survey. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 50, down from 62 in the second quarter. There are …
The October Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published October 15, 2010. Most of the survey dealt with how the economists view the impact of further Quantitative Easing (QE). I found a few items of interest in the survey. Perhaps the most interesting facet was the statement, “Though economists don’t expect robust growth, they …
The September NFIB Small Business Optimism was released on October 12. The headline of the Press Release is “Small Business Optimism Index Remains at Recessionary Level.” Here are some especially notable excerpts from the Press Release: “The Index has been below 93 every month since January 2008 (32 months), and below 90 for 26 of …
On October 7 The Wall Street Journal had a story titled “Debt Crisis Dims IMF Outlook.” A couple of excerpts from the story: “All told, the IMF predicted the world economy will expand 4.8% in 2010 and 4.2% in 2011.” and: “The risks for economies to backslide are still high amid the fragile economic recovery, …
I am aware of no recent warnings by others of a possible stock market crash in the near term. In the past I have commented that I view a future crash as certain. Like that of 2008, such a crash would include not only equity markets but many others as well. Pinpoint timing of crashes …
In the October 11-October 17 2010 issue of Bloomberg BusinessWeek, it had an article titled “The Corporate Profit Engine May Be Slowing.” The article contains a variety of information concerning earnings. An excerpt: “For the first time in more than a year, Wall Street analysts cut their forecasts for Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index earnings …
The September 27-October 3 2010 issue of Bloomberg BusinessWeek has an interesting story titled “Thomas Hoenig is Fed Up.” The story chronicles various views of Thomas Hoenig and how these views differ from those of others prominent within The Federal Reserve. I found one line, referring to Hoenig’s views, particularly noteworthy given current (and likely …
I have written a few posts about the bond market bubble, with the most recent being the post of October 4 titled “Thoughts On The Bond Bubble.” There are many aspects of the bond market that support the conclusion that it is in an enormous bubble. I ran across the following from the SentimenTrader.com daily …
This post highlights current readings from the Consumer Metrics Institute. Previous posts solely concerning the Consumer Metrics Institute (CMI) can be found on August 23, July 27 and March 31; as well CMI data is included in the monthly “Updates On Economic Indicators.” Here are a couple of charts concerning the CMI’s Daily Growth Index, …