The October Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published October 15, 2010. Most of the survey dealt with how the economists view the impact of further Quantitative Easing (QE).
I found a few items of interest in the survey. Perhaps the most interesting facet was the statement, “Though economists don’t expect robust growth, they see just a 20% chance of another recession in the next 12 months.” This 20% figure is very similar to previous months’ responses.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
Ten-Year Treasury Yield:
for 12/31/2010: 2.58%
for 12/31/2011: 3.55%
for 12/1/2010: 1.2%
for 12/1/2011: 1.8%
for 12/1/2010: 9.6%
for 12/1/2011: 9.0%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2010: $79.78
for 12/31/2011: $83.18
full-year 2010 : 2.5%
full-year 2011 : 2.8%
(note: I comment upon this survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
A Special Note concerning our economic situation is found here
SPX at 1121.9 as this post is written