Recession Probability Models

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There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …

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December 4 Gallup Poll Results On Economic Confidence – Notable Excerpts

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On December 4, Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence in November Best in Four Years.”  The subtitle is “Average index score of -13 for the month.” Two of the most notable excerpts: Americans’ economic confidence was better in November than in any month since Gallup began tracking confidence daily in January 2008. The -13 …

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Building Financial Danger – December 5, 2012 Update

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On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.”  This post is a brief 19th update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains  many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous …

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3rd Quarter Corporate Profits

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Last Thursday’s GDP release (Q3, 2nd Estimate) was accompanied by the BLS Corporate Profits report (preliminary) for the 3rd Quarter. Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits.  For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) showing the Corporate Profits After Tax (last updated …

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U.S. Dollar Decline – December 3, 2012 Update

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U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine.  As such, I have extensively written about it.  I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar.  Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits.  The negative impact of a substantial …

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St. Louis Financial Stress Index – November 29, 2012 Update

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On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the  STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on November 29, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to November 23, …

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Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through October 2012

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Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, here are a few charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through October, last updated on November 28.  This value is 216,948 ($ Millions) : (click on charts …

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Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The current levels of each are notable, as they are flagging from a short-term perspective and their long-term trends continue to sink. Doug Short, in his blog post …

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