America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of September 17, 2015, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 10, 2015 update (reflecting data through September 4) is -.591. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
In a September 11, 2015 Bloomberg article, titled “Here’s When Economists Expect to See the Next U.S. Recession,” 31 economists’ forecasts for the next U.S. recession are discussed. While I don’t agree with the findings of this survey, I highlight these forecasts for reference purposes as I believe that such forecasts should be monitored. In …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Doug Short, in his September 11, 2015 post titled “Median Household Income Little Changed in July” produced the chart below. It is based upon data from Sentier Research, and it shows both nominal and real median household incomes since 2000, as depicted. …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
The September Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 11, 2015. The headline is “WSJ Survey: China’s Growth Statements Make U.S. Economists Skeptical.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Two excerpts: Among …
On September 10, 2015 the September Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO survey, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts: Ninety-three percent of U.S. companies say they have job openings in key positions and nearly half of …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 10, 2015 update (reflecting data through September 4) is -.591. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
This post is an update to past posts regarding stock market volatility. While I track many different measures of volatility, I find the following charts to be both simple and clear in depicting the recent increased volatility in the stock market. Overall, my analyses indicates that there are many reasons for this volatility, and the volatility …
In the September 7, 2015 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “The Bull Still Rules.” Included in the story, 10 investment strategists give various forecasts for 2015 and 2016 including S&P500 profits, S&P500 year-end price targets, GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields. Three excerpts: Collectively, the strategists expect the Standard & Poor’s …