The “Double-Dip” Scenario

Lately there have been an increasing number of people citing the possibility of a “double-dip” recession.  Much of this scenario is predicated upon the belief that as government stimulus spending fades, so too will economic activity. This March 5 article from summarizes some of the opinions regarding the double-dip reasoning and possibilities. I find … Read more The “Double-Dip” Scenario

Another Ponzi Scheme

I have been intermittently commenting upon the growing number of investment frauds being uncovered.   Those posts can be found under the “investment frauds” tag. Here is yet another alleged Ponzi scheme as seen in Thursday’s Wall Street Journal article titled “SEC Charges Couple in Florida Ponzi Scheme.” As seen in the article, this alleged scheme … Read more Another Ponzi Scheme

“I Can Own Cheaper Than I Can Rent”

One of the commonly stated reasons for buying a home now, as opposed to renting, is that “I can own (a home) cheaper than I can rent.” This is no doubt the case in many areas of the country, especially those that have experienced large declines in residential real estate prices. Is this condition, where … Read more “I Can Own Cheaper Than I Can Rent”

An Interesting Article On Housing Prices

I came across an interesting Fortune Magazine story dated February 16 titled “Where’s housing headed? Follow rents.”  The link can be found here. Of course, given my previous posts on residential real estate I don’t agree with many aspects of the story, especially the statement “Given that analysis, it’s likely that prices will fall another … Read more An Interesting Article On Housing Prices

The Yield Curve As A Leading Indicator

Here is a link to the NY Fed’s page regarding the yield curve (specifically the 10-year rates vs. 3-month rates) as a leading indicator. What I find interesting is that the chart (pdf, at this link) plotting the current probability of recession indicates an imperceptibly small .04% chance of recession as of January 2010.  As … Read more The Yield Curve As A Leading Indicator

Alan Greenspan “Takes On His Critics”

The March 1 edition of Fortune Magazine has an article titled “Alan Greenspan Fights Back.”  The link is found here. I found the article interesting for a variety of reasons. As the article mentions, rarely has Greenspan addressed his purported culpability in creating the housing bubble and its accompanying impact on the economy. Greenspan’s tenure … Read more Alan Greenspan “Takes On His Critics”

Keynesian Theory – A Few Comments

Up to this point, I have yet to mention “Keynes” or any derivative thereof.  The reason for this is simple – I don’t believe that the efforts taken to stimulate the economy are reflective of the theories that Keynes espoused.  Instead, they are a type of “bastardized” Keynesian Theory – used by various parties in … Read more Keynesian Theory – A Few Comments

The Effectiveness Of Stimulus

“One of the biggest economic myths since the Great Depression is that governments can ameliorate or counteract the ebbs and flows of free markets. Government spending has never worked as a trigger for sustained and vibrant economic growth. Ever. Scholarship has demonstrated that the New Deal perpetuated the Depression rather than cured it. On the … Read more The Effectiveness Of Stimulus

Tax Increases And Our Economic Situation – Follow Up

On October 16 I wrote a post titled “Tax Increases And Our Economic Situation.”  That post can be found at this link. Some may wonder what tax increases I am referring to, as at least headline tax rates have yet to increase in many areas.  Tax increases have been deferred for many reasons.  Among these … Read more Tax Increases And Our Economic Situation – Follow Up

A Notable Poll On Economic Conditions

Here is poll (in PDF format) on economic conditions that I believe is highly notable.  It is from CNN and was conducted February 12-15, 2010. The question presented was “How would you rate the economic conditions in the country today — as very good, somewhat good, somewhat poor, or very poor?” A total of 83% … Read more A Notable Poll On Economic Conditions