Survey Concerning The Timing Of The Next U.S. Recession

In a September 11, 2015 Bloomberg article, titled “Here’s When Economists Expect to See the Next U.S. Recession,” 31 economists’ forecasts for the next U.S. recession are discussed.

While I don’t agree with the findings of this survey, I highlight these forecasts for reference purposes as I believe that such forecasts should be monitored.

In addition to a discussion of these forecasts, in the article there is a timeline shown of when the 31 economists expect the next recession.

A couple of excerpts from the article:

Some advice for President Barack Obama’s successor: bring a plan to fight the next recession.

That’s one conclusion drawn from a survey of economists Sept. 4-9, where the median forecast of 31 respondents has the next downturn occurring in 2018.


Economists said there’s a 10 percent chance of  a U.S. recession within the next 12 months, according to the median of the survey. While the median is usually a good gauge because it’s less influenced by outlier responses, the survey’s average showed an interesting uptick. Looking at that metric, the odds of a U.S. recession in the next year climbed to an average 13 percent, the highest since economists were surveyed in December 2013.

Additional information can be seen in the article.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1957.64 as this post is written