The September Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 11, 2015. The headline is “WSJ Survey: China’s Growth Statements Make U.S. Economists Skeptical.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Two excerpts:
Among survey respondents, half said events in China would be a mild drag on the U.S. economy. More than one-third said that despite financial-market fluctuations, the impact on the real economy would be minimal. Three economists said China would be a significant drag, and four said a slowdown there actually would help the American economy.
also:
So modest, in fact, that economists upgraded forecasts for U.S. economic growth in 2015. Full-year GDP is expected to expand 2.4% this year, stronger than the previous estimate of 2.2%. But predictions for next year remain muted, with the consensus coming in at 2.6%, down a tick from the 2.7% in the August survey.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 9.97%; the average response in August was 9.84%.
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The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2015: 2.4%
full-year 2016: 2.6%
full-year 2017: 2.5%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2015: 5.0%
December 2016: 4.7%
December 2017: 4.7%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2015: 2.47%
December 2016: 3.09%
December 2017: 3.56%
CPI:
December 2015: 1.0%
December 2016: 2.1%
December 2017: 2.4%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2015: $48.05
for 12/31/2016: $56.29
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1944.74 as post is written