America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The September 2015 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 24, 2015: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of September 18, 2015 (incorporating data through September …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 17, 2015 update (reflecting data through September 11) is -.68. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” (pdf) of September 22, 2015, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the Year …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of September 18, 2015: Year 2015 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $111.27/share …
This post provides an update to various past posts discussing deflation and “deflationary pressures,” including the most recent post, that of July 27, 2015 titled “U.S. Deflation – July 27, 2015 Update.” I have extensively written of “deflationary pressures” and deflation as I continue to believe that prolonged and deep U.S. deflationary conditions are …
In the last post (“Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 2Q 2015“) I displayed a long-term chart depicting Total Household Net Worth as a percentage of GDP. For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 to 2015:Q2). The last value (as of September 21, 2015) …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk blog post of September 18, 2015 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth at Record High at end of Q2.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart to …
On Thursday, September 17, 2015 Janet Yellen gave her scheduled September 2015 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Janet Yellen’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of …