America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The October Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 8, 2015. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists See U.S. on Cusp of ‘Full’ Employment,” WSJ Survey Says.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” …
For references purposes, below are two charts that show the trend in interest rates for various Treasuries, including the 3-Month, 2-Year, 5-Year, 7-Year, and 10-Year. A chart showing the interest rate trends of the last 20 years, on a monthly basis: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief 53nd update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 1, 2015 update (reflecting data through September 25) is -.685. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
On October 6, 2015 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Index Flat in September.” Notable excerpts include: Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaged -14 for September, essentially the same as the -13 in August. From a broader perspective, the index has declined steadily since peaking at +3 in January. also: Twenty-four percent …
While there are various similarities between the economic situation of 2008 and 2015, there are also many notable differences. A comprehensive comparison would be extensively lengthy and would contain many complex aspects. As such, no short discussion can even begin to be a comprehensive discussion of the economic and financial similarities and differences of the …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through Friday’s (October 2, 2015) close, which had a closing value of 20.94. Here is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively: (click on chart …
In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, …
StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators. As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown. All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale. (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com) …