The April Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 11, 2014. The headline is “Economists See Growth Spurt Delayed, Not Derailed.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Three excerpts I found notable:
Harsh winter weather delayed—but likely didn’t derail—the breakout growth many economists expected for the U.S. going into the year.
Because of the weather drag, the consensus view of the 48 economists surveyed—not all of whom answered every question—is that real GDP growth slowed to only a 1.5% annual rate in the first quarter and is now revving up to a 3.0% pace this quarter. That’s a bit less robust than the pattern projected in the March survey, when first-quarter growth of 1.9% was expected to be followed by a 2.9% pace.
Economists continue to think that if they are misreading the tea leaves, it is because they are too cautious about the outlook. Three-quarters of the respondents say the risk to their respective forecasts for 2014 is to the upside rather than to the downside.
As seen in the “Economist Q&A” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was seen to be roughly equal to that of March’s average response of 12%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2014: 2.7%
full-year 2015: 3.0%
full-year 2016: 2.9%
December 2014: 6.2%
December 2015: 5.7%
December 2016: 5.4%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2014: 3.35%
December 2015: 3.91%
December 2016: 4.33%
December 2014: 1.9%
December 2015: 2.1%
December 2016: 2.3%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2014: $97.31
for 12/31/2015: $95.51
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1821.87 as this post is written