IMF Report – Probabilities Of Recession And Deflation

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the April 2014 “World Economic Outlook.” (pdf)  The subtitle is “Recovery Strengthens, Remains Uneven.”

One area of the report is figure 1.14 on page 14.  While I do not agree with the current readings of the three measures presented – Probability of Recession, Probability of Deflation, and the “Deflation Vulnerability Index” – I do find them to be notable, especially as one can compare these estimates across various economies.

As one can see, the U.S. is estimated to have a roughly 12.5% probability of recession and a roughly 2% probability of deflation for the periods indicated.


I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1837.11 this post is written