America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
On April 1, 2014 Gallup released the poll results titled “In U.S., Economic Confidence Holds Steady in March.” The subtitle is “Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index averages -17, similar to past two months.” Notable excerpts include: Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index averaged -17 in March, essentially the same as the -16 measured in January and February. also: The …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact of a substantial …
Recently Deloitte released their “CFO Signals” “High-Level Summary” report for the 1st Quarter of 2014. As seen in page 2 of the report, “One hundred and nine CFOs responded during the two-week period ending February 21. Sixty-nine percent of the respondents are from public companies, and 81% are from companies with more than $1B in annual revenue. For …
In the last post (“4th Quarter 2013 Corporate Profits“) I displayed, for reference purposes, a long-term chart depicting Corporate Profits After Tax. There are many ways to view this measure, both on an absolute as well as relative basis. One relative measure is viewing Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP. I feel that this metric …
Thursday’s GDP release (Q4, 2nd Estimate) was accompanied by the BLS Corporate Profits report for the 4th Quarter. Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits. For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) showing the Corporate Profits After Tax (last updated March 27, 2014, with …
Doug Short had a blog post of March 28, 2014 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment…“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the above charts that I find highly …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through February, last updated on March 26, 2014. This value is 229,379 ($ Millions) : (click on charts to …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The March 2014 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of March 24, 2014: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of March 21, 2014 (incorporating data through March 14, …
With regard to our current economic situation, my thoughts can best be described/summarized by the posts found under the 34 “Building Financial Danger” posts. My thoughts concerning our ongoing economic situation – with future implications – can be seen on the page titled “A Special Note On Our Economic Situation,” which has been found near …