America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of October 15, 2015, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the October 15, 2015 update (reflecting data through October 9) is -.706. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
On October 9, 2015, The Conference Board and PwC released the 3rd Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 48, down from 58 in the second quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this October 9 Press Release include: …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 76 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart (through October 8, 2015) from Doug Short’s blog …
The September NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, October 13, 2015. The headline of the Small Business Economic Trends report is “Small Business Optimism Continues To Be Low.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased .2 points in September to 96.1. Here are some excerpts from that I find particularly notable (but don’t …
One of my ongoing concerns is the level and future resiliency of the U.S. Dollar. For reference, below is a chart that I find notable. It provides a comparison of the Euro (on the top plot) to the Dollar (found on the bottom plot) on a daily basis, with price labels, over the last five …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the October 2015 “World Economic Outlook.” (pdf) The subtitle is “World Economic Outlook: Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices.” One area of the report is Figure 1.15 on page 22. While I do not agree with the current readings of the two measures presented – Probability of Recession and …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …