Recession Probability Models – June 2020

While there has been an official declaration of U.S. recession on June 8, 2020 (as discussed in the “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC” post), the following discussion is warranted for many reasons. Among the reasons is that two of the measures mentioned below are “forward-looking” in nature. There are a … Read more Recession Probability Models – June 2020

Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC

Yesterday (June 8, 2020) the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) declared a recession. This announcement is seen on the NBER page titled “Determination of the February 2020 Peak in US Economic Activity.” An excerpt: The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research maintains a chronology … Read more Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC

Building Financial Danger – June 8, 2020 Update

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment … Read more Building Financial Danger – June 8, 2020 Update

“Not In Labor Force” Statistic – As Of June 2020

In the November 13, 2013 post (“Not In Labor Force Statistic“) I featured editorial commentary from the Wall Street Journal, as well as an accompanying long-term chart, with regard to the number of people not working. Also, on February 9, 2015 I wrote another post titled “Unemployment And The ‘Not In Labor Force’ Statistic,” in … Read more “Not In Labor Force” Statistic – As Of June 2020

Average Hourly Earnings Trends

I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic … Read more Average Hourly Earnings Trends

U-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Reference Charts As Of June 5, 2020

Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective.  Both charts are from the St. … Read more U-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Reference Charts As Of June 5, 2020

3 Critical Unemployment Charts – June 2020

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the … Read more 3 Critical Unemployment Charts – June 2020

Zillow Q2 2020 Home Price Expectations Survey – Summary & Comments

On June 4, 2020, the Zillow Q2 2020 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released.  This survey is done on a quarterly basis. An excerpt from the press release: Coronavirus and subsequent stay-at-home orders resulted in lower-than-expected transaction volume during what was primed to be a busy spring home shopping season. While it was thought the spring … Read more Zillow Q2 2020 Home Price Expectations Survey – Summary & Comments

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the May 28, 2020 update (reflecting data through May 22, 2020) is .1198. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

VIX Weekly And Monthly Charts Since The Year 2000 – June 2, 2020 Update

For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through Monday’s (June 1, 2020) close, which had a closing value of 28.23. Here is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively: (click on chart … Read more VIX Weekly And Monthly Charts Since The Year 2000 – June 2, 2020 Update