America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here are four charts reflecting confidence survey readings. These are from the SentimenTrader.com site. I find these charts valuable as they provide a long-term history of each survey, which is rare. Each survey chart is plotted in blue, below the S&P500: (click on each chart to enlarge image) Conference Board Consumer Confidence, last updated 6-29-10: …
The Wall Street Journal had an article on July 17-18 titled “Roads to Ruin: Towns Rip Up the Pavement.” The story highlights the practice of converting paved roads to gravel instead of repaving them in order to save money. This is yet another example of our (national) inability to maintain our infrastructure. I believe that …
I have written of “odd occurrences” and their significance, most recently in the July 14 post. The yield of the 2-Year Treasury is one example of these “odd occurrences.” Here is a 3 year daily chart: click on chart to enlarge image; chart courtesy of StockCharts.com Plotted below the 2-Year Treasury yield is the price …
With regard to the finance reform bill, I found a few comments in Friday’s (July 16) Wall Street Journal to be notable. First, this quote from a story titled “Impact to Reach Beyond Wall Street”: “”The bill does not respond at all to the causes of the financial crisis,” said Peter Wallison, a former Reagan …
As I commented in the July 12 post: “For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny.” Along those lines, I would like to make comments on the ECRI WLI …
I found a few items of interest in The July Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey. The economists surveyed continue to place a relatively low probability on a “double-dip” recession. As stated in the article, “Economists, on average, now see the odds of double-dip recession at 20%.” As well, there a variety of interesting questions …
Here are two charts that I have found interesting from a Technical Analysis perspective. I believe they are helpful in understanding the current stock market situation. I would like to reiterate my view that we are in a bear market rally, albeit subject to conditions I spoke of in my June 2 post. Here is …
In March of 2009 I wrote an article titled “A S&P500 Target of 100?” I am sure that the mere idea of such a target seems impossible to many. However, for a variety of reasons, many indicated in the aforementioned article, I believe that such a target is not only possible but increasing in likelihood. …
On Friday, The Wall Street Journal had an article titled “Why This Isn’t Like 1938 – At Least Not Yet.” Ever since the onset of the “Financial Crisis” there has been a continual flow of comparisons of our current economic situation to that of The Great Depression. Last year I wrote about these comparisons on …
For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Toward that end, I recently came about a July 5 article, found here, from Doug Short that provides a good (and …