Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 5, 2023 update (reflecting data through December 30, 2022) is -.0134: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …

Read more

Four Stock Market Indexes – Ultra Long-Term Charts

StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators. As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown.  All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale. (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com) The …

Read more

U.S. Dollar Decline – Jan 3, 2023 Update

U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine.  As such, I have extensively written about it, including commentary on the “A Substantial U.S. Dollar Decline And Consequences” page.  I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar.  Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, …

Read more

Problems Within The American Economic Situation

Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators portrayed a short period (through mid-2020) of substantial U.S. economic decline, and now indicate sustained economic growth and financial stability for the foreseeable future. However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – that this very widely-held consensus is …

Read more

10-Year Treasury Yields – Two Long-Term Charts As Of December 29, 2022

I have written extensively about the importance of U.S. interest rate levels.  Rising interest rates have substantial ramifications for many aspects of the current-day economy.  My commentaries with regard to interest rates and the bond bubble are largely found under the “bond bubble” tag.   From an intervention perspective commentary is found under the “Intervention” …

Read more

misc. note – corrections of blog posts

In the July 2, 2010 post I explained my policy with regard to changing the content of posts after the day the posts have been published on the blog.

While I change bad links and incorrect formatting without notification, I believe that changing blog posts’ content warrants disclosure.

Over time I have made corrections to content on various blog posts.  These corrections generally have been for reasons of (factual) accuracy and – for better readability – to correct typos and/or incorrect extraneous wording.

A list of these corrections is seen below.  This list indicates the posts corrected and the reason for such corrections.  The error as seen in the original posting is seen in bold:

Read more

Money Supply Charts Through November 2022

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …

Read more

Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of December 23, 2022

Advisor Perspectives had a post of December 23, 2022 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment Up 5% in December“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find …

Read more