America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On Wednesday, April 29, 2026 FOMC Chair Jerome Powell gave his scheduled April 2026 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript …
For reference purposes, below is a chart reflecting Real GDP, as depicted, with value $24,174.527. This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2026 (Advance Estimate) of April 30, 2026: source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Gross Domestic Product [GDPC1], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 30, 2026: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1 _________ I post …
Advisor Perspectives had a post of April 28, 2026 (“Consumer Confidence Edged Up Again Despite Spiking Prices“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of April …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of April 10, 2026, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the Year …
The following is the latest update of 9 charts that depict various aspects of the U.S. economic and financial situation. I find these charts portray disturbing long-term trends. These trends have been in effect for years. These charts raise a lot of questions. As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from …
The April 2026 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 12, 2026. The headline is “Inflation, Growth and Jobs All Look Worse With the War.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the forecasts section. An excerpt: …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …