U.S. Primary Stock Market Indexes – Ultra Long-Term Charts

StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators. As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown.  All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale. (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com) The … Read more U.S. Primary Stock Market Indexes – Ultra Long-Term Charts

U.S. Dollar Decline – September 1, 2020 Update

U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine.  As such, I have extensively written about it, including commentary on the “A Substantial U.S. Dollar Decline And Consequences” page.  I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar.  Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, … Read more U.S. Dollar Decline – September 1, 2020 Update

Problems Concerning The U.S. Economic Situation

Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators portray a short period (through mid-2020) of substantial U.S. economic decline, followed by a sustained significant economic rebound and then financial system stability for the foreseeable future. However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – that this very … Read more Problems Concerning The U.S. Economic Situation

U.S. Deflation Probability Chart Through August 2020

For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through August 2020. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This … Read more U.S. Deflation Probability Chart Through August 2020

Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of August 28, 2020

Advisor Perspectives had a post of August 28, 2020 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment…“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I find these readings to be … Read more Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of August 28, 2020

Deloitte “CFO Signals” Report Q3 2020 – Notable Aspects

Recently Deloitte released their “CFO Signals” “High-Level Summary” report for the 3rd Quarter of 2020. As seen in page 3 of the report, there were 155 survey respondents.  As stated: “Each quarter (since 2Q10), CFO Signals has tracked the thinking and actions of CFOs representing many of North America’s largest and most influential companies. All respondents are … Read more Deloitte “CFO Signals” Report Q3 2020 – Notable Aspects

Corporate Profits As A Percentage Of GDP

In the last post (“2nd Quarter 2020 Corporate Profits“) I displayed, for reference purposes, a long-term chart depicting Corporate Profits After Tax. There are many ways to view this measure, both on an absolute as well as relative basis. One relative measure is viewing Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP.  I feel that this … Read more Corporate Profits As A Percentage Of GDP

2nd Quarter 2020 Corporate Profits

Today’s (August 27, 2020) GDP release (Q2 2020, Second Estimate) was accompanied by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Corporate Profits report (preliminary estimate) for the 2nd Quarter. Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits.  For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) … Read more 2nd Quarter 2020 Corporate Profits

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the August 20, 2020 update (reflecting data through August 14, 2020) is -.4647. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through July 2020

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through July 2020, updated on August 26, 2020. This value is $230,672 ($ Millions): (click on charts to … Read more Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through July 2020