Recession Probability Models – February 2021

Although there was an official declaration of U.S. recession on June 8, 2020 (as discussed in the “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC” post), the following discussion is warranted for many reasons. Among the reasons is that two of the measures mentioned below are “forward-looking” in nature. There are a variety …

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Building Financial Danger – February 8, 2021 Update

My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.”  These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …

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Monthly Changes In Total Nonfarm Payroll – February 5, 2021 Update

For reference purposes, below are five charts that display growth in payroll employment, as depicted by the Total Nonfarm Payroll measures (FRED data series PAYEMS). PAYEMS, which is seasonally adjusted, is defined in Financial Reserve Economic Data [FRED] as: All Employees: Total Nonfarm, commonly known as Total Nonfarm Payroll, is a measure of the number …

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U-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Reference Charts As Of February 5, 2021

Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective.  Both charts are from the St. …

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3 Critical Unemployment Charts – February 2021

As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the February 4, 2021 update (reflecting data through January 29, 2021) is -.4489: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI2], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve …

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VIX Weekly And Monthly Charts Since The Year 2000 – February 3, 2021 Update

For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through Tuesday’s (February 2, 2021) close, which had a closing value of 25.56. Here is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively: (click on chart …

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Charts Of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980 – February 3, 2021 Update

In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, …

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DJIA, DJTA, S&P500 And Nasdaq Price Charts – Long Duration

StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators. As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown.  All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale. (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com) The …

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