Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the September 5, 2019 update (reflecting data through August 30, 2019) is -1.266. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Recession Probability Models – September 2019

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is … Read moreRecession Probability Models – September 2019

VIX Weekly And Monthly Charts Since The Year 2000 – September 4, 2019 Update

For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through Tuesday’s (September 3, 2019) close, which had a closing value of 19.66. Here is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively: (click on chart … Read moreVIX Weekly And Monthly Charts Since The Year 2000 – September 4, 2019 Update

Charts Of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980 – September 3, 2019 Update

In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, … Read moreCharts Of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980 – September 3, 2019 Update

DJIA, DJTA, S&P500 And Nasdaq Composite Long-Term Stock Charts

StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators. As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown.  All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale. (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com) The … Read moreDJIA, DJTA, S&P500 And Nasdaq Composite Long-Term Stock Charts

U.S. Dollar Decline – September 3, 2019 Update

U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine.  As such, I have extensively written about it.  I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar.  Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits.  The negative impact of a substantial … Read moreU.S. Dollar Decline – September 3, 2019 Update

U.S. Economic And Financial Conditions And Future Consequences

Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators continue to indicate U.S. economic growth and stability for the foreseeable future.  The consensus view is that the U.S. economy is (very) strong and the risk of recession remains low. However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – … Read moreU.S. Economic And Financial Conditions And Future Consequences

Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of August 30, 2019

The Doug Short site had a post of August 30, 2019 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Lowest Level Since October 2016“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above … Read moreConsumer Confidence Surveys – As Of August 30, 2019

Corporate Profits As A Percentage Of GDP

In the last post (“2nd Quarter 2019 Corporate Profits“) I displayed, for reference purposes, a long-term chart depicting Corporate Profits After Tax. There are many ways to view this measure, both on an absolute as well as relative basis. One relative measure is viewing Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP.  I feel that this … Read moreCorporate Profits As A Percentage Of GDP

2nd Quarter 2019 Corporate Profits

Today’s (August 29, 2019) GDP release (Q2 2019, second estimate) was accompanied by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Corporate Profits report (preliminary estimate) for the 2nd Quarter. Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits.  For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) … Read more2nd Quarter 2019 Corporate Profits