Problems Inherent In The U.S. Economic Situation

Various surveys, economic growth projections, and market risk indicators portray a short period (through mid-2020) of substantial U.S. economic decline, followed by a sustained significant economic rebound and then financial system stability for the foreseeable future. However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – that this very …

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U.S. Deflation Probability Chart Through October 2020

For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through October 2020. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …

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Employment Cost Index (ECI) – Third Quarter 2020

While the concept of Americans’ incomes can be defined in a number of ways, many prominent measures continue to show disconcerting trends. One prominent measure is the Employment Cost Index (ECI). Here is a description from the BLS document titled “The Employment Cost Index:  what is it?“: The Employment Cost Index (ECI) is a quarterly …

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Another Recession Probability Indicator – Updated Through Q2 2020

Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities.  The latest update was that of October 7, 2020, titled “Recession Probability Models – October 2020.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …

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Velocity Of Money – Charts Updated Through October 29, 2020

Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 3rd quarter of 2020, and were last updated as of October 29, 2020. Velocity of MZM Money Stock, current value = 1.00: Data Source: FRED, …

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Real GDP Chart Since 1947 With Trendline – 3rd Quarter 2020

For reference purposes, below is a chart from the Advisor Perspectives’ post of October 29, 2020 titled “Q3 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP at 31.4%, Record High” reflecting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted.  This chart incorporates the Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2020 (Advance Estimate) of October 29, 2020: _________ I post various indicators and …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the October 22, 2020 update (reflecting data through October 16, 2020) is -.3568. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …

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Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through September 2020

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through September 2020, updated on October 27, 2020. This value is $237,057 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …

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Updates Of Economic Indicators October 2020

The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The October 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of October 26, 2020: The CFNAI, with a current reading of .27: source:  Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …

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The U.S. Economic Situation – October 23, 2020 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …

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