The U.S. Economic Situation – November 22, 2019 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, … Read more The U.S. Economic Situation – November 22, 2019 Update

Money Supply Charts Through October 2019

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds.Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM Money … Read more Money Supply Charts Through October 2019

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the November 14, 2019 update (reflecting data through November 8, 2019) is -1.301. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of … Read more Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 EPS Forecasts 2019 Through 2021 And Past Actual EPS

As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of November 18, 2019, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the … Read more S&P500 EPS Forecasts 2019 Through 2021 And Past Actual EPS

Standard & Poor’s S&P500 EPS Estimates 2019 & 2020 – November 11, 2019

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of November 11, 2019: Year 2019 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $159.12/share … Read more Standard & Poor’s S&P500 EPS Estimates 2019 & 2020 – November 11, 2019

Philadelphia Fed – 4th Quarter 2019 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

The Philadelphia Fed 4th Quarter 2019 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 15, 2019.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2019:  2.3% full-year 2020:  1.8% full-year 2021:  … Read more Philadelphia Fed – 4th Quarter 2019 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – November 15, 2019 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug … Read more Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – November 15, 2019 Update

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the November 7, 2019 update (reflecting data through November 1, 2019) is -1.324. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and … Read more Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Charts Indicating Economic Weakness – November 2019

U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators.  At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable.  This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. While many U.S. economic indicators – including GDP – are indicating economic growth, others … Read more Charts Indicating Economic Weakness – November 2019