Unemployment And Stimulus

Here is a Wall Street Journal editorial from Monday: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703298004574459341050610398.html I found it interesting for two reasons.  First, it has a chart that shows the actual Unemployment Rate vs. that forecast in “The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan.”  Currently the Unemployment Rate is approximately 2% above the rate forecasted with the stimulus. Second, the editorial … Read more Unemployment And Stimulus

A Quizzical Quote From Barney Frank

Here is a story from The New York Times of October 8 that discusses the situation at the FHA: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/09/business/09fha.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2 What I found particularly interesting in this story was a quote from Barney Frank, the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee: “I don’t think it’s a bad thing that the bad loans occurred,” he … Read more A Quizzical Quote From Barney Frank

NABE Economic Forecast Survey

Here is another economic forecast survey, this time from NABE: http://www.cnbc.com/id/33278490/ From the article: “The survey of 44 professional forecasters released by the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) found that 80 percent of the respondents believed the economy was growing again after four straight quarters of declines.” The survey’s results for 2010 GDP and … Read more NABE Economic Forecast Survey

The Latest WSJ Forecasting Survey

I would like to highlight a couple of facets of the latest Wall Street Journal Forecasting Survey: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125494927938671631.html?mod=djemalertNEWS As stated, “The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 52 economists throughout the year. Broad surveys on more than 10 major economic indicators are conducted every month. Once a year, economists are ranked on how well … Read more The Latest WSJ Forecasting Survey

Updates On Economic Indicators

I would like to do a quick update of some indicators that are supposed to predict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index) was at 127.1 in the week to September 25.  Here is Press Release: http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1582/ Fortune’s Big Picture Index is at 14.25 as of October … Read more Updates On Economic Indicators

“Cash For Clunkers” Revisited

Here is an October 5 Wall Street Journal editorial reviewing the “Cash For Clunkers” stimulus plan: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703628304574453280766443704.html Also, to provide perspective, a chart of Vehicle Sales from the CalculatedRisk blog (10/1 post) at this link: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/10/light-vehicle-sales-92-million-saar-in.html As one can see, the “Cash for Clunkers” seems to have been successful in temporarily causing a surge in auto sales for July and … Read more “Cash For Clunkers” Revisited

“Stimulus Spending Doesn’t Work” Op-Ed

Here is an October 1 op-ed in The Wall Street Journal titled “Stimulus Spending Doesn’t Work” : http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704471504574440723298786310.html Although I don’t concur with some of the statements in this Op-Ed, I do believe that its overall message and conclusions are important.   SPX at 1054.72 as this post is written

A Note About Unemployment Statistics

From time to time, I will write posts that contain the Unemployment Rate or various other job loss measures.  I show these statistics as they are widely used and quoted by others.  From my perspective, however, the methodology used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics does not provide an accurate depiction.  There are a variety … Read more A Note About Unemployment Statistics

Another Chart Reflecting Job Losses

I would like to present an interesting chart on job losses.  My last chart concerning job losses was posted on September 10.  The commentary I presented there is still highly applicable to the latest unemployment numbers. This chart is from http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ from October 2.  I like this chart as it presents a depiction of the relative severity … Read more Another Chart Reflecting Job Losses


On Tuesday The Wall Street Journal published an editorial on the FHA (Federal Housing Administration).  I found it to be a good overview of the situation there.  The editorial can be found at this link: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204488304574428970233151130.html I find this FHA situation highly disconcerting, especially in light of how similar situations have played out, and are playing out, … Read more FHA