America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief 56th update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written …
Recently Deloitte released their “CFO Signals” “High-Level Summary” report for the 4th Quarter of 2015. As seen in page 2 of the report, “One hundred twelve CFOs responded during the two-week period ending November 20. Seventy-six percent of respondents are from public companies, and 82% are from companies with more than $1B in annual revenue. …
“Stock market capitalization to GDP” is a notable and important metric regarding stock market valuation. In February of 2009 I wrote of it in “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?” Doug Short has recently published a post depicting this “stock market capitalization to GDP” metric. As seen in his January 6, 2016 post titled …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart (through January 6, 2016) from Doug Short’s blog …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the December 31, 2015 update (reflecting data through December 25) is -.596. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
On January 5, 2016 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Averages -11 in December.” Notable excerpts include: Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index averaged -11 in December, which is slightly better than the monthly averages of -12 to -14 measured from July through November. Americans’ economic confidence was slightly lower in December than earlier …