America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The January Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 14, 2016. The headline is “Economists See Continued U.S. Expansion, Heightened Global Risk.” As indicated in the article, 76 economists were surveyed, although not every economist answered every question. I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 79 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 7, 2016 update (reflecting data through January 1) is -.607. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
I found President Obama’s State of the Union Address last night (January 12, 2016) to contain some noteworthy comments. While I could comment extensively on many parts of the speech, for now I will indicate excerpts that I found most relevant with regard to the economic situation, and may comment upon them at a future point. I …
One notable aspect of the financial markets is the continuing sharp drop in crude oil prices. Other commodities have also been under selling pressure. I view these declines, as well as other aspects of the overall financial system, to be manifestations of “deflationary pressures,” of which I have extensively written. As discussed by the Wall …
In the October 6, 2015 post (“Comparisons Of Economic And Financial Aspects – 2008 And 2015“) I discussed credit spreads and featured a chart of the spread between Moody’s Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond and the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity. For reference, here is an updated long-term chart of that measure, with a current reading (updated …
This post is an update to past posts regarding stock market volatility. While I track many different measures of volatility, I find the following charts to be both simple and clear in depicting the recent volatility in the stock market. Overall, my analyses indicates that there are many reasons for this volatility, and the volatility is …
On January 6, 2016, The Conference Board released the 4th Quarter Measure Of CEO Confidence. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 45, down from 48 in the third quarter. [note: a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses] Notable excerpts from this January 6 Press Release include: CEOs’ assessment …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …