The January 2016 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The January Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 14, 2016.  The headline is “Economists See Continued U.S. Expansion, Heightened Global Risk.”  As indicated in the article, 76 economists were surveyed, although not every economist answered every question.

I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.

An excerpt:

Most economists think the American economy will continue to expand, but weakness abroad is heightening their concern about U.S. growth. Forecasters in The Wall Street Journal’s latest survey of economists say there is a 17% chance the U.S. will enter recession in the next year, the highest risk in three years. And 80% of forecasters said they see risks to the economy to the downside.

As seen in the “Recession Probability” section – and mentioned above – the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 16.93%; the average response in December’s survey was 15.00%.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:


full-year 2015:  2.0%

full-year 2016:  2.5%

full-year 2017:  2.4%

full-year 2018:  2.3%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2016: 4.7%

December 2017: 4.6%

December 2018: 4.8%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2016: 2.79%

December 2017: 3.26%

December 2018: 3.62%


December 2016:  1.9%

December 2017:  2.3%

December 2018:  2.3%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2016: $43.46

for 12/31/2017: $50.02

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1919.21 as post is written