America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the July 31, 2014 update (reflecting data through July 25) is -1.340. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
On August 5, 2014 Gallup released the poll results titled “In U.S., Economic Confidence Dips Two Points in July.” The subtitle is “Americans’ economic outlook worsens.” Notable excerpts include: Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index fell two points in July to -17, which is the lowest index reading since March. also: Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index is the average of …
On August 1, 2014, the Zillow Q3 2014 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. Two excerpts from the Press Release: The panel also said they expect U.S. median home values to end 2014 up 4.6 percent, on average, and to exceed their 2007 peak levels by the end …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Doug Short had a blog post of August 1, 2014 (“July Michigan Consumer Sentiment at Four-Month Low“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the above charts …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact of a substantial …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted: _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation SPX at 1970.07 as this post is written
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 2nd quarter of 2014, and were last updated as of July 30, 2014. As one can see, one of the three measures is at an …