America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The February 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of February 22, 2016: (current reading of +.28; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.15): – The ECRI WLI (Weekly …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” (pdf) of February 18, 2016, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the Year …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of February 16, 2016: Year 2015 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $103.58/share …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the February 11, 2016 update (reflecting data through February 5) is -.472. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q4 2016 management call transcript (pdf) dated February 18, 2016. (as well, there is Walmart’s press release of the Q4 results(pdf)) I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices. I have previously commented on their quarterly management call comments; these previous posts are found under …
For reference purposes, the chart below shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index on a daily basis, since 2006, with price labels: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author) _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation SPX at 1926.82 as …
On February 17, 2016, the Zillow Q1 2016 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. Excerpts from the Press Release: Prices of newly constructed homes are at historic highs — the median price of new homes sold in December 2015 was almost 7 percent above the pre-recession peak …
As a reference, below is a monthly chart of Gold, Silver, the Gold:Silver ratio, and the S&P500, from January 1, 1980 through February 12, 2016 with price labels: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author) _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation SPX …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …