The September Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 11, 2014. The headline is “Economists See Overseas Risks as Growth Wild Card.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
More than 90% of the 48 surveyed economists—not all of whom answered every question—said they expect the U.S. economy to improve relative to the first half of 2014. None see the economic outlook deteriorating. The survey was conducted after last Friday’s weaker-than-expected August jobs report.
The economists see gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, advancing at a 3% annual pace this quarter and next. Just three economists expected growth to exceed 3.7% in the third or fourth quarters, and only two see growth falling below 2%.
The economy expanded at a 4.2% pace in the second quarter after contracting 2.1% in the first quarter, according to the Commerce Department.
Forecasters in the Journal survey expect the U.S. economy to grow at a 2.8% annual pace in 2015, down slightly from last month’s forecast of 2.9% annual growth.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 11.65%; August’s average response was 12.10%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2014: 2.0%
full-year 2015: 2.8%
full-year 2016: 2.8%
December 2014: 5.9%
December 2015: 5.4%
December 2016: 5.2%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2014: 2.84%
December 2015: 3.58%
December 2016: 4.00%
December 2014: 2.1%
December 2015: 2.2%
December 2016: 2.4%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2014: $94.45
for 12/31/2015: $93.67
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1985.95 as this post is written