America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The Philadelphia Fed 1st Quarter 2016 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on February 12, 2016. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2016: 2.1% full-year 2017: 2.4% full-year 2018: …
In the October 6, 2015 post (“Comparisons Of Economic And Financial Aspects – 2008 And 2015“) I discussed credit spreads and featured a chart of the spread between Moody’s Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond and the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity. For reference, here is an updated long-term chart of that measure, with a current reading (updated …
Yesterday (February 11, 2016) the yield on the 10-Year Treasury went below 1.60%, before closing at 1.644%. As a reference, here is a long-term chart of the 10-Year Treasury yield since 1980, depicted on a monthly basis, LOG scale, with price labels: (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
The February 2016 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 11, 2016. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists Lower Growth Estimates Amid Rising Recession Risk.” As indicated in the article, 69 economists were surveyed, although not every economist answered every question. I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t …
Many people believe that the Yield Curve is an important economic indicator. On March 1, 2010, I wrote a post on the issue, titled “The Yield Curve As A Leading Economic Indicator.” An excerpt from that post: On the NY Fed link above, they have posted numerous studies that support the theory that the yield …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the February 4, 2016 update (reflecting data through January 29) is -.484. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
In the August 11, 2010 post (“Employment-Population Ratio – Chart And Comments“) I featured a chart of the Employment-Population Ratio and brief commentary. For those unaware of this measure, a description is seen in the February 3, 2014 Liberty Street Economics post titled “A Mis-Leading Labor Market Indicator“: The employment-population (E/P) ratio frequently is used as …
For reference purposes, below are three charts that display growth in payroll employment. The first chart is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) February 8, 2016 The Economics Daily (TED) post titled “Payroll employment up 151,000 in January 2016.” It shows, as stated, “Over-the-month change in (total) payroll employment” from January 2006-January 2016: The …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …