America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The September Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 11, 2015. The headline is “WSJ Survey: China’s Growth Statements Make U.S. Economists Skeptical.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Two excerpts: Among …
On September 10, 2015 the September Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO survey, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts: Ninety-three percent of U.S. companies say they have job openings in key positions and nearly half of …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 10, 2015 update (reflecting data through September 4) is -.591. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
This post is an update to past posts regarding stock market volatility. While I track many different measures of volatility, I find the following charts to be both simple and clear in depicting the recent increased volatility in the stock market. Overall, my analyses indicates that there are many reasons for this volatility, and the volatility …
In the September 7, 2015 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “The Bull Still Rules.” Included in the story, 10 investment strategists give various forecasts for 2015 and 2016 including S&P500 profits, S&P500 year-end price targets, GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields. Three excerpts: Collectively, the strategists expect the Standard & Poor’s …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief 52nd update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written …
In the November 13, 2013 post (“Not In Labor Force Statistic“) I featured editorial commentary from the Wall Street Journal, as well as an accompanying long-term chart, with regard to the number of people not working. Also, on February 9, 2015 I wrote another post titled “Unemployment And The ‘Not In Labor Force’ Statistic,” in …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …