Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2015 & 2016 – As Of September 18, 2015

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of September 18, 2015: Year 2015 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $111.27/share …

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U.S. Deflation – September 21, 2015 Update

This post provides an update to various past posts discussing deflation and “deflationary pressures,” including the most recent post, that of July 27, 2015 titled “U.S. Deflation – July 27, 2015 Update.”   I have extensively written of “deflationary pressures” and deflation as I continue to believe that prolonged and deep U.S. deflationary conditions are …

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Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 2Q 2015

The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk blog post of September 18, 2015 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds:  Household Net Worth at Record High at end of Q2.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP.  The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart to …

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Janet Yellen’s September 17, 2015 Press Conference – Notable Aspects

On Thursday, September 17, 2015 Janet Yellen gave her scheduled September 2015 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Janet Yellen’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript.  These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of …

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Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of September 17, 2015, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the September 10, 2015 update (reflecting data through September 4) is -.591. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …

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Survey Concerning The Timing Of The Next U.S. Recession

In a September 11, 2015 Bloomberg article, titled “Here’s When Economists Expect to See the Next U.S. Recession,” 31 economists’ forecasts for the next U.S. recession are discussed. While I don’t agree with the findings of this survey, I highlight these forecasts for reference purposes as I believe that such forecasts should be monitored. In …

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Median Household Income Chart

I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Doug Short, in his September 11, 2015 post titled “Median Household Income Little Changed in July” produced the chart below.  It is based upon data from Sentier Research, and it shows both nominal and real median household incomes since 2000, as depicted. …

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