Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the September 24, 2015 update (reflecting data through September 18) is -.715. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of September 29, 2015

Doug Short had a blog post of September 29, 2015 (“Consumer Confidence Improved Moderately in September“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the above charts that … Read moreConsumer Confidence Surveys – As Of September 29, 2015

Stock Market Capitalization To GDP – Through Q2 2015 – Update

“Stock market capitalization to GDP” is a notable and important metric regarding stock market valuation.  In February of 2009 I wrote of it in “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?” Doug Short has recently published a post depicting this “stock market capitalization to GDP” metric. As seen in his September 25, 2015 post titled … Read moreStock Market Capitalization To GDP – Through Q2 2015 – Update

Money Supply Charts Through August 2015

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM … Read moreMoney Supply Charts Through August 2015

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through August 2015

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through August, updated on September 24, 2015. This value is $236,322 ($ Millions): (click on charts to enlarge images) … Read moreDurable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through August 2015

Updates Of Economic Indicators September 2015

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The September 2015 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 24, 2015: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of September 18, 2015 (incorporating data through September … Read moreUpdates Of Economic Indicators September 2015

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the September 17, 2015 update (reflecting data through September 11) is -.68. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The U.S. Economic Situation – September 23, 2015 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, … Read moreThe U.S. Economic Situation – September 23, 2015 Update

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of … Read moreTrends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 Annual EPS Estimates For 2015, 2016 & 2017

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” (pdf) of September 22, 2015, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year … Read moreS&P500 Annual EPS Estimates For 2015, 2016 & 2017