Recession Measures – Updated

This post is the latest update to a series of blog posts seen on the CalculatedRisk.com blog.  The original blog post of April 12, 2010, is titled “Recession Measures.” In it, Bill discussed key measures that the NBER uses to determine recoveries, and posted four charts. Here are those charts, updated in his October 30, 2011 post titled … Read moreRecession Measures – Updated

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as an economic indicator. For reference, here are a few charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through September, last updated on October 26.  The last value is 200,333: – Here is the chart depicting the measure on a … Read moreDurable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts

Volatility In Income Among The Most Affluent Americans

In the October 22-23 Wall Street Journal, there was an article titled “The Wild Ride Of The 1%.” This article discusses the fluctuations, and causes of fluctuations, of the wealth of the country’s most affluent. While the entire article is worthwhile reading, I found the following excerpts to be particularly notable: The American rich, who … Read moreVolatility In Income Among The Most Affluent Americans

Updates On Economic Indicators October 2011

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The October Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of October 24, 2011: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt from the September 27 update titled “Index forecasts … Read moreUpdates On Economic Indicators October 2011

PPI,CPI & Profit Margin Trends – October 2011 Update

In various past posts I have written of the challenges businesses face in pricing, given today’s economic environment.  One aspect that I mentioned in the April 25 2011 and December 16 2010 posts was how the PPI (Producer Price Index) growth was significantly outpacing that of the CPI. Since those posts, this PPI-CPI growth rate issue has remained notable.  … Read morePPI,CPI & Profit Margin Trends – October 2011 Update

St. Louis Financial Stress Index – October 20 Update

On March 28 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the  STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Here is the most recent chart.  This chart was last updated on October 20, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 10-14-11 on a weekly basis.  The present level … Read moreSt. Louis Financial Stress Index – October 20 Update

Thoughts On The Next Stock Market Decline

In my post of October 10 (“Near-Term Direction Of Stock Market“)  I stated with regard to the S&P500: The question now becomes whether that 1074.77 was a “lasting bottom,” or whether there is more near-term downside.  I believe that the 1074.77 low will not be a “lasting bottom” – i.e. it will be breached to … Read moreThoughts On The Next Stock Market Decline

October 19 Gallup Poll On Americans’ Personal Finances – Notable Excerpts

On October 19, Gallup released poll results titled “Americans Grow More Negative About Their Personal Finances.” I find this poll interesting for a variety of reasons; perhaps chief among them is as another indication of growing financial strain among households.  A few excerpts of note: Nearly one in four U.S. adults (22%) now rate their personal … Read moreOctober 19 Gallup Poll On Americans’ Personal Finances – Notable Excerpts

Conference Board CEO Confidence 3Q 2011

On October 7, I wrote a post about the latest Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey and the Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey titled “CEO & CFO Surveys 3Q 2011.” Subsequent to that post, on October 11, The Conference Board released its 3rd Quarter CEO Confidence Survey.   The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at … Read moreConference Board CEO Confidence 3Q 2011