America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
I think that the relatively poor “price action” of various financial stocks is notable. It is one of many current indications that overall stock market health is not as strong as a casual glance at the major indices would indicate. Below is a chart featuring the XLF (the financial ETF) on a daily basis since …
On June 27 The Wall Street Journal published an article titled “Stocks Fall. Optimism Stands Tall.” As seen in this article: Analysts expect the S&P 500 companies to earn $99.86 a share in aggregate this year, up 2.3% from their April 1 estimate, according to FactSet. Strategists expect $95.24, according to John Butters, senior earnings …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The June Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of June 23, 2011: – The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An …
On Wednesday June 22 Ben Bernanke gave his scheduled Press Conference. Overall, I found his remarks less notable than that of his April 27 Press Conference, which I commented upon in the April 28 post titled “Ben Bernanke’s April 27 Press Conference – My Comments.” Here are Ben Bernanke’s comments I found most notable, although …
On June 22 MacroMarkets released its June 2011 Home Price Expectations Survey (pdf) results. This Survey is now done on a quarterly basis. The accompanying chart is seen below: (click on chart image to enlarge) As one can see from the above chart, the average expectation is that not only has the residential real estate …
Recently McKinsey released their “Economic Conditions Snapshot, June 2011” As stated in the survey: Over the past three months, executives around the world have grown more pessimistic about their nations’ economies: compared with three months ago, a smaller share say their economies improved over the past six months, and slightly more expect worsening conditions over the …
On June 14 the Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey was released for the 2nd quarter. The June Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey was released on June 8. Both contain a variety of statistics regarding how executives view business and economic conditions. In the CEO survey, of particular interest is the CEO Economic Outlook Index, which …
The June 9, 2011 Livingston Survey (pdf) contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: June 30, 2011 1340 Dec. 30, 2011 1380 June 29, 2012 1413.5 Dec. 31, 2012 1463.5 These figures represent the median value across the 35 forecasters on the …
This Time Is Different (2009) by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff is a widely-quoted and referenced book. Often it is referred to as “the Reinhart and Rogoff book.” I find the book to be interesting and unique, although I don’t agree with some of its contents. From an overall standpoint, perhaps the greatest misgiving I …
In the October 27, 2010 blog post (“Market Overview – Part V: Stock Market”) I showed two charts of the S&P500. As we are now approaching various important technical levels of the S&P500, I have updated one of the charts, as seen below: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; annotations by the author click on chart to …