America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Over the last few years the political scene has become more volatile, swinging from heavily Republican to heavily Democratic. Now, it appears as if the political volatility is increasing yet again, with the recent election of Scott Brown and the unexpected hurdles Ben Bernanke is facing during his reconfirmation. Many incumbents (and political appointees) who until recently seemed …
On this blog, I have maintained a focus on the U.S. economy. I have done so for a variety of reasons, many of which are explained in this June 21 2009 post: https://www.economicgreenfield.com/2009/06/21/the-global-economic-future/ Additionally, from a practical perspective, from a time standpoint it would be prohibitive to attempt to comment on all global economic affairs that I consider relevant. …
I would like to provide an overall update as to my thoughts on our current economic situation. My blog post of September 1, 2009 summarizes my current thoughts well. It can be found here: https://www.economicgreenfield.com/2009/09/01/are-we-going-into-a-depression/ Many of my concerns and reasons for such an outlook have been expressed in this blog. Of course, over the last …
Here is the link to the latest (January) Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704363504575002700724430016.html As seen in the survey details, there hasn’t been much change in expectations concerning full-year 2010 GDP or the Unemployment Rate for many months. The average expectation is for a full-year GDP of 3.0% and Unemployment Rate for December 2010 of 9.5%. …
On December 17, I commented on the US Dollar, especially in the context of the US Dollar carry trade. Today, I would like to make a few overall comments about the US Dollar. Here is a weekly chart of the US Dollar from 2000, with the MACD and CCI indicators shown above the price plot: Chart courtesy …
Occasionally, I have posted charts concerning unemployment. With Friday’s unemployment release, here are three charts that I find noteworthy: First, from the St. Louis Fed site, the Median Duration of Unemployment. Second, from the CalculatedRisk blog of 1/8/10, Unemployed Over 26 Weeks: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ Third, again from the CalculatedRisk blog of 1/8/10 – I like this chart …
Here are some indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index) was at 131.5 for the week ended January 1. From the story in the link below: “‘With the WLI climbing to a one-and-a-half-year high, the U.S. economy …
Given the incredibly outsized intervention efforts in the residential real estate market, I think it is important to examine some dynamics of the real estate bubble. Here is a chart from the 12/15/09 Contrary Investor commentary that I believe is interesting, as it depicts some underlying residential real estate fundamentals. It shows the equity and mortgage …
Here is a Wall Street Journal editorial on the December 24 developments at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This editorial provides some new perspectives on the matter: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704152804574628350980043082.html My original comments on these developments was on December 28. I feel it is critically important to understand the extent of intervention as it pertains to the housing market. Fannie …
I would like to make a couple of comments regarding the speech Ben Bernanke gave on January 3. It was titled “Monetary Policy and The Housing Bubble.” (pdf) I could make a significant amount of comments regarding this speech, as I partly or fully disagree with many of the points presented. I will, however, briefly comment …