Tag Archives: Fortune’s Big Picture Index

Updates On Economic Indicators

Here are various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The April Chicago Fed National Activity Index (pdf) (last updated 4/29/10)

The Consumer Metrics Institute’s Contraction Watch:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

an excerpt dated 4/29/10:

“The April update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows moderate growth in real GDP, at a six-month annualized growth rate, through late summer. The forecasted April growth rate of 3.6% is expected to slow to 3.0% – 3.1% for June through September. Tight credit, high debt burdens and the government’s monetary and fiscal stimulus programs coming to an end will temper consumer spending, keeping the growth rate solid but moderate.”

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index) : Last updated 4/16/10:

The WLI is at 133.0

Fortune’s Big Picture Index:

-I was unable to locate updated values for this index-

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

As of 3/31/10 the Indicator was at 39.4.  An excerpt from the release:

“”Although the rise is modest, it is better than the stagnation of recent months,” Alen Mattich, Dow Jones Newswires “Money Talks” columnist, said. “If repeated in April it could indicate that the economy is starting to haul itself slowly upwards again.”

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index

Here is the latest chart, updated through 4-24-10:

The Conference Board LEI (Leading Economic Index) and CEI (Coincident Economic Index): (pdf)

As of April 19, the LEI was at 109.6 for March, and the CEI was at 100.2 for March.  The chart shows a continuing large disparity between the two measures.

From the Press Release: “Adds Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “The indicators point to a slow recovery that should continue over the next few months.  The leading, coincident and lagging series are rising.  Strength of demand remains the big question going forward.  Improvements in employment and income will be the key factors in whether consumers push the recovery on a stronger path.”

“New Financial Conditions Index”

I had a post of this index on 3/10/10.  There is currently no updated value available.

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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

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SPX at 1206.26 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators

Here are some indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/economic-outlook.htm

an excerpt dated 2/24: “The February update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, above 4% in January through April followed by slower but solid growth in May through July. The slower growth is expected as inventory boosts slow and the government’s monetary and fiscal stimulus programs end.”

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1764/

an excerpt dated March 12:  “(Reuters) – A gauge of future U.S. economic growth rose slightly in the latest week while its yearly growth index continued to fall to a 31-week low, upholding expectations the economy will likely decelerate starting mid-year, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index was 130.6 for the week ended March 5, up from 129.8 the previous week.”

Fortune’s Big Picture Index:

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/storysupplement/recovery_index/index.html

-I was unable to obtain updated values for this index-

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator)

http://solutions.dowjones.com/economicsentimentindicator/

This indicator was at 38.1 as of March 1; as seen on the chart, this index seems to be holding at a relatively steady level since November.

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index

http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/business-conditions-index/

Here is the latest chart (updated as of March 6) of this indicator:

The Conference Board LEI (Leading Economic Index) and CEI (Coincident Economic Index)

www.conference-board.org

Per a news release of February 18, the January LEI was at 107.4 and the January CEI was at 100.1.  There exists a notable gap between these two measures.

“New Financial Conditions Index”

I had a post of this index on Wednesday, which can be found here:

https://www.economicgreenfield.com/2010/03/10/new-financial-conditions-index/

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

back to <home>

SPX at 1149.99 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators

Here are some indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index) was at 131.5 for the week ended January 1.  From the story in the link below: “‘With the WLI climbing to a one-and-a-half-year high, the U.S. economy is firmly set to strengthen in the coming months,’ said Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director at ECRI.”

http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1685/

Fortune’s Big Picture Index was at 17.59 as of December 18.  This is at a level that is very near to the low of the data series; furthermore, as one can see, its gauge depicting “recession v. recovery” seems to strongly indicate “recession.”

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/storysupplement/recovery_index/index.html

The Dow Jones ESI  (Economic Sentiment Indicator) is shown to be at 38.7 as of December 31, having risen steadily throughout 2009 as shown here:

http://solutions.dowjones.com/economicsentimentindicator/

Here is the latest chart depicting the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index.  I wrote a blog post concerning this index on October 27:

http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/business-conditions-index/

Lastly, although I have not discussed the Conference Board LEI (Leading Economic Indicator), I find the chart included in this press release to be interesting.  Here one can see the LEI at 104.9 for November.  As seen in the December 17 Press Release (link found below), the LEI is now slightly higher than the latest peak of July 2007.

The CEI (Coincident Economic Index) is at 100.1.  There is a sizable difference between the LEI and the CEI.

http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/economics/bci/USLEIpr_1209.pdf

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SPX at 1144.98 as this post is written

Updates On Economic Indicators

I would like to do a quick update of some indicators that are supposed to predict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index) was at 127.1 in the week to September 25.  Here is Press Release:

http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1582/

Fortune’s Big Picture Index is at 14.25 as of October 2.  This is at a level that is very near to the low of the data series; furthermore, as one can see, its gauge depicting “recession v. recovery” seems to strongly indicate “recession.”

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/storysupplement/recovery_index/index.html

Lastly, the Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator) is shown to be 34.1, according to the September 30 Press Release here:

http://solutions.dowjones.com/economicsentimentindicator/

I find all three of these indicators to be very interesting, and will continue to post them on occasion.

SPX at 1065.48 as this post is written

An Interesting New Index

I ran across the following – it is Fortune’s Big Picture Index.  From the original notice in Fortune Magazine, June 8, p 62, “Our new proprietary index measures seven key signs of economic health”

I find the index interesting, and worth at least a quick peek.  Unfortunately, the link provided doesn’t give a lot of detail with regard to index construction, history, backtesting, etc. – and seems to only go back to 2007.  Nonetheless, it is nice to see the overall index trend and then the seven subcomponent trends, as well as an overall “meter” of the recession vs. recovery spectrum.

Here is the link:

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/storysupplement/recovery_index/index.html

SPX at 900.94 as this post is written