America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As previously indicated, in this post: https://www.economicgreenfield.com/2009/06/19/current-economic-forecasts/ most mainstream economic forecasters as well as many other financial professionals believe that “the worst is behind us” as far as economic damage. It certainly would be nice if this were the case. However, for a variety of reasons, I continue to believe that while it is possible that …
Perhaps the most common refrain heard with regard to our current economic situation, and why it won’t become a Depression, is that we as a nation have been proactive and aggressive in “managing” this period of economic weakness. This theory, more or less, has the following generalized (and summarized) structure: There has been rigorous research conducted on the …
One of the questions that seems to be popular since the economic events of 2008 is whether we are in a Depression. As such, for the next few posts I will be commenting on the topic. Here are two links that indicate that we are not in a Depression: http://seekingalpha.com/article/142831-great-depression-ii-it-s-not-even-close?source=email http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/06/update-what-is-depression.html Yet, as indicated in this …
One of the questions I received when I first started this blog is why I didn’t choose to discuss the global economic future, as opposed to America’s Economic Future. This is a good question. In essence, I do believe its focus is on the global economic future, as not only is the United States (obviously) the …
To date, I haven’t written or otherwise commented about the issue of Moral Hazard. Perhaps the main reason is that I am afraid if I start writing about it, I may never stop… Needless to say, the issue of Moral Hazard and its implications are massive, and just seems to grow with time. It seems …
It seems as if there appears to be a growing consensus among private and public sector economists regarding economic forecasts; that of slightly positive third-quarter GDP growth, which gradually improves going forward; as well as a peak in unemployment around 10%. This is reflected in the latest (June) Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting survey : http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124464007697702065.html In the survey, …
A couple of days ago I posted excerpts of a speech by Ben Bernanke in which he outlines various reasons for inherent uncertainty and difficulty in economic predictions and forecasts. It appears that ever since the start of The Financial Crisis, in early 2007, it has been very difficult for forecasters to accurately predict economic performance. For those interested, I have compiled …
My analyses indicate that, unfortunately, businesses will continue to face very challenging conditions. Many already find themselves in rather perilous circumstances, as witnessed by the number and breadth (across industries) of companies experiencing double-digit revenue declines, not to mention innumerable other statistics. On a couple of occasions I have written about the conditions that businesses face during …
This story, “On Borrowed Time : Consumer-Led Recovery” was in The Wall Street Journal on June 9. I found the chart and its implications to be interesting. One is led to wonder “how much gas is left in the tank” with regard to Household Debt as a Percentage of Disposable Income. This is especially an issue with “Income” and …
I find it interesting that the term “Green Shoots” seems to have been eradicated in any official government comments regarding the economy. I am not sure why this is so, as the term itself seems rather innocuous. There must be a reason for its demise, however… SPX at 907.07 as this post is written