America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
While my overall thoughts on ECRI’s measures and methodologies are complex and lengthy, I would like to highlight one aspect of the ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. charts that I find particularly interesting. From a casual observation standpoint, I have been noticing what I have been referring to as successive “dead cat bounces” in both …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on May 3, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 4-27-12 on a …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief 11th update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous …
On May 1, Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Steady in April at Four-Year High.” The subtitle is “Economic optimism continues to outstrip perceptions of current conditions.” Three of the most notable excerpts: Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index averaged -20 in April, identical to confidence in March and slightly improved over -22 in February …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact …
This post is the latest update to a series of blog posts seen on the CalculatedRisk.com blog. The original blog post of April 12, 2010, is titled “Recession Measures.” In it, Bill discussed key measures that the NBER uses to determine recoveries, and posted four charts. Here are those charts, updated in his April 29, 2012 post titled “Recovery …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the first quarter of 2012, and were last updated as of April 27, 2012. As one can see, two of the three are at all-time lows: …