On May 1, Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Steady in April at Four-Year High.” The subtitle is “Economic optimism continues to outstrip perceptions of current conditions.”
Three of the most notable excerpts:
Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index averaged -20 in April, identical to confidence in March and slightly improved over -22 in February and -27 in January. Although this is the first month since last September that monthly confidence did not improve to any extent, it remains steady at the highest level Gallup has recorded since initiating Daily tracking at the start of 2008.
The strong rebound in Americans’ confidence in the economy that has occurred since last summer has tapered off, and, with weekly averages in April failing to match the best weekly averages recorded in March, it is unclear what will happen in May.
Increasing public optimism about the economy’s direction has been the main engine of the recent recovery in confidence. The outlook component increased by 46 points (from -59 in August to -13 in April), while the current conditions component increased by 20 points, from -46 to -26. As a result, optimism now leads current conditions. However, there may be a limit to how high economic optimism can go without perceptions of current conditions rising significantly as well. As long as ratings of current conditions continue to stagnate or rise by only a few points each month, a full recovery of economic confidence into positive territory could still be a long way off.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1405.82 as this post is written