While my overall thoughts on ECRI’s measures and methodologies are complex and lengthy, I would like to highlight one aspect of the ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. charts that I find particularly interesting.
From a casual observation standpoint, I have been noticing what I have been referring to as successive “dead cat bounces” in both the ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. charts.
As one can see in each of the charts (from Doug Short’s blog post of May 4, 2012 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Indicator: Third Consecutive Decline“) below there is a progressive lessening in the amplitude of advances one sees in each measure since the end (per NBER) of the recession in June 2009.
(click on charts to enlarge images)
ECRI WLI chart:
ECRI WLI, Gr. chart:
This successive “dead cat bounce” aspect is disconcerting on an “all things considered” basis, and is yet another metric (among many) that indicates the vibrancy of economic activity remains, at best, constrained.
As well, I believe recent ECRI statements, particularly that of March 15 (“Why Our Recession Call Stands“), should be considered in tandem with the WLI and WLI, Gr. readings.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1367.80 as this post is written