America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on May 11, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 5-11-12 on a …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief 12th update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous …
Recently, there has been increasing mention of the Federal Reserve’s “Dual Mandate.” While my thoughts on the topic are complex, and I am not necessarily in agreement with it, I think highlighting some reference material on the the “Dual Mandate” is apropos as I expect there to be much more mention of this in the …
On June 29, 2011 I wrote a blog post titled “Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action.” Although financial stocks have increased in price in 2012, I continue to believe that the longer-term “price action” of various financial stocks is disconcerting. I view the poor performance of these financial and brokerage stocks to be one indicator …
In the June 29, 2011 post (“Financial Stocks – Notable Price Action”) I wrote the following: I think that the relatively poor “price action” of various financial stocks is notable. It is one of many current indications that overall stock market health is not as strong as a casual glance at the major indices would …
The May Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on May 14, 2012. The headline is “Economists Forecast Subdued Growth in 2012.” I found the following excerpts to be notable: The economy is expected to add about 185,000 jobs a month over the next year. That rate of growth hasn’t been seen since 2006, …
Last week, ECRI issued a variety of statements and interviews that I found notable. The full list is found at ECRI’s website. Each of these interviews and articles is in some way a reaffirmation of ECRI’s recession call of September 30, 2011 that the U.S. was “tipping into recession,” and ECRI has reaffirmed that view since, …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on May 10, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 5-4-12 on a …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they depict such a tenuous situation now – 35 months after the official (as per the 9-20-10 NBER announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These charts raise a lot …