Last week, ECRI issued a variety of statements and interviews that I found notable. The full list is found at ECRI’s website.
Each of these interviews and articles is in some way a reaffirmation of ECRI’s recession call of September 30, 2011 that the U.S. was “tipping into recession,” and ECRI has reaffirmed that view since, including a notable statement on March 15 (“Why Our Recession Call Stands.”)
While I don’t necessarily agree with ECRI’s analyses and conclusions -my overall thoughts on ECRI’s measures and methodologies are complex and lengthy – below are various of last week’s comments that I find notable:
Bloomberg video, May 9: ”Lakshman Achuthan on Renewed U.S. Recession Call: Video”
ECRI, May 9: ”Revoking Recession: 48th Time’s The Charm?”
Here, ECRI discusses a variety of issues – including whether recessions can be avoided – and highlights the YoY Growth in Real Personal Income, especially for the last 3 months. An excerpt:
For the last three months, year-over-year growth in real personal income has stayed lower than it was at the beginning of each of the last ten recessions. In other words, this is what personal income growth typically looks like early in a recession.
ECRI, May 11: “Rising GDP Doesn’t Rule Out Recession.”
What most people don’t understand is that recessions often begin when gross domestic product is still showing positive growth.
Four of the past six recessions started during a quarter when GDP was growing, as did 72% of all recessions in the past 94 years.
One reason we believe the economy is heading for recession now is weak job growth. Since February, job growth has turned down, as have other key indicators.
In fact, our research shows a new recession is likely to start by mid-2012. Under the circumstances, complacency about U.S. recession risk is likely to prove badly misplaced.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1353.39 as this post is written