America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The February 2015 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of February 23, 2015: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of February 20, 2015 (incorporating data through February …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
For references purposes, below are two charts that show the trend in interest rates for various Treasuries, including the 3-Month, 2-Year, 5-Year, 7-Year, and 10-Year. A chart showing the interest rate trends of the last 20 years, on a monthly basis: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the February 19, 2015 update (reflecting data through February 13) is -.928. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q4 2015 management call transcript (pdf) dated February 19, 2015. (as well, there is Walmart’s press release of the Q4 results) I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices. I have previously commented on their quarterly management call comments; these previous posts are found under …
This post is an update to various past posts concerning the stock market bubble, most recently that of November 21, 2013 titled “Is The Stock Market Experiencing A Bubble?” Many people don’t believe that we are currently experiencing a stock market bubble because their primary reference regarding stock market bubbles is that of the mid- …
On February 13, 2015, the Zillow Q1 2015 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. An excerpt from the Press Release: The panelists predicted U.S. home values will rise 4.4 percent in 2015, to a median value of $187,040. The most optimistic forecasted a 5.5 percent increase, while the …
The Philadelphia Fed 1st Quarter 2015 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on February 13, 2015. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2015: 3.2% full-year 2016: 2.9% full-year 2017: …
The February Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 12, 2015. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists See Cheap Oil Weighing On Capital Investment.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Two excerpts: …