America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through July, last updated on August 26. This value is 226,620 ($ Millions) : (click on charts to enlarge …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on August 22, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to August 16, …
Each week I have been posting two charts of the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI), which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve as well as …
With regard to our current economic situation, my thoughts can best be described/summarized by the posts found under the 27 “Building Financial Danger” posts. My thoughts concerning our ongoing economic situation – with future implications – can be seen on the page titled “A Special Note On Our Economic Situation,” which has been found near …
With the recent increase in interest rates, perhaps the paramount question is what impact a rising interest rate environment will have on the economy. First, for reference, here is a long-term chart of interest rates from 1962, as seen in Doug Short’s post of August 17 titled “Treasury Yields In Perspective” : (click on chart …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” of August 20, 2013, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts: Year 2013 estimate: $110.70/share …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of August 15, 2013: Year 2013 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $108.41/share …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The August 2013 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of August 20, 2013: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of 8/16/13 (incorporating data through 8/9/13) the WLI was …