America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the February 5, 2015 update (reflecting data through January 30) is -.883. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
The January NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, February 10, 2015. The headline of the Small Business Economic Trends report is “NFIB: Small Business Optimism Falls, But Still In Normal Zone.” The Index of Small Business Optimism decreased 2.5 points in January to 97.9. Here are some excerpts from that I find particularly …
On February 2, 2015 the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF) published an Economic Letter titled “Persistent Overoptimism about Economic Growth.” (pdf) This Economic Letter has many notable aspects. Here are some excerpts that I found particularly notable, although I don’t necessarily agree with them: Economic forecasting can be a humbling endeavor. In a …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
Employment and unemployment statistics can be interpreted in various manners, and as such the resulting conclusions often vary. Due to the importance to both individuals and the economy at large, the overall topic of unemployment remains hotly contested. At this point, it is widely recognized that recent “job gains” have been strong, and that the …
One of my ongoing concerns is the level and future resiliency of the U.S. Dollar. For reference, below is a chart that I find notable. It provides a comparison of the Euro (on the top plot) to the Dollar (found on the bottom plot) over the last five years: (chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief 45nd update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …