Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The February 2015 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of February 23, 2015:
As of February 20, 2015 (incorporating data through February 13, 2015) the WLI was at 130.3 and the WLI, Gr. was at -4.3%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of February 20, 2015, titled “ECRI Recession Watch: Update“:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through February 14, 2015:
As per the February 19, 2015 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased,” the LEI was at 121.1 and the CEI was at 111.6 in January.
An excerpt from the February 19 release:
“The U.S. Leading Economic Index increased again in January, but its pace of growth has moderated in recent months,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board. “While the LEI suggests a positive short-term outlook in 2015, the lack of strong momentum in residential construction, along with a weak outlook for new orders in manufacturing, poses a downside risk for the U.S. economy.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of February 19 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Growth Moderates“:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2103.47 as this post is written