Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The March 2014 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of March 24, 2014:
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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of March 21, 2014 (incorporating data through March 14, 2014) the WLI was at 132.9 and the WLI, Gr. was at 2.3%.
Here is a chart of the ECRI WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s March 21, 2014 post titled “ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update” :
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through March 15, 2014:
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The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:
As per the March 20, 2014 press release, the LEI was at 99.8 and the CEI was at 108.2 in February.
An excerpt from the March 20 release:
“While the CEI shows the pace of economic activity remained slow at the start of 2014, the trend in the LEI remains quite positive,” said Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board. “The biggest challenge continues to be weak consumer demand, pinned down by weak wage growth. These conditions were still in evidence the first two months of the year, but will likely improve as spring arrives.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of March 20 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index Increased in February“ :
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1866.26 as this post is written