October 2015 IMF Report – Probabilities Of Recession And Deflation

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the October 2015 “World Economic Outlook.” (pdf)  The subtitle is “World Economic Outlook:  Adjusting to Lower Commodity Prices.”

One area of the report is Figure 1.15 on page 22.  While I do not agree with the current readings of the two measures presented – Probability of Recession and the Probability of Deflation – I do find them to be notable, especially as one can compare these estimates across various global economies.

As one can see, the U.S. is estimated to have a roughly 15% probability of recession and roughly a less than 1% probability of deflation for the periods indicated.


I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2013.48 this post is written