America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of June 19, 2014: Year 2014 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $119.61/share …
With regard to our current economic situation, my thoughts can best be described/summarized by the posts found under the 37 “Building Financial Danger” posts. My thoughts concerning our ongoing economic situation – with future implications – can be seen on the page titled “A Special Note On Our Economic Situation,” which has been found near …
In previous posts I have discussed the Bond Bubble and its many facets, as my analyses indicates that the overall bond market is an exceedingly large asset bubble with immensely large and wide-ranging economic implications. Since my last post on the Bond Bubble (the February 6, 2013 post titled “The Bond Bubble – February 2013 Update“) I have …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The June 2014 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of June 23, 2014: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of June 20, 2014 (incorporating data through June …
On Wednesday, June 18, 2014 Janet Yellen gave her scheduled press conference. (video and related materials) Below are Janet Yellen’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of Chairman Yellen’s Press Conference“(preliminary)(pdf) of June …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 12, 2014 update is -1.256. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve …
For reference purposes, below are four charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM Money Stock” (seasonally …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart from Doug Short’s blog post of June 13 …
The June Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 12, 2014. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists Optimistic Stage Is Set for Pickup in Wage Growth.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. …