America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
In yesterday’s post (“Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 3Q 2015“) I displayed a long-term chart depicting Total Household Net Worth as a percentage of GDP. For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 to 2015:Q3). The last value (as of December 11, 2015) is …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
On December 9, 2015, the Zillow Q4 2015 Home Price Expectations Survey (pdf) results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. Excerpts from the Press Release: The survey responses revealed that some housing experts are concerned about over-valuation in some of the nation’s hottest housing markets – and that there is significant disagreement among experts …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk blog post of December 10, 2015 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Declined in Q3.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart to enlarge image) As seen …
The December 2015 Livingston Survey published on December 10, 2015 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Dec. 31, 2015 2090.0 June 30, 2016 2120.0 Dec. 31, 2016 2184.9 Dec. 29, 2017 2298.0 These figures represent the median value across the 25 …
The December Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 10, 2015. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists Are Convinced Fed Will Raise Rates in December.” As indicated in the article, 65 economists were surveyed, although not every economist answered every question. I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t …
On December 9, 2015 the December Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO survey, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts: Business spending will be weak in 2016 because of slowing growth in China and low oil …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the December 3, 2015 update (reflecting data through November 27) is -.86. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief 55th update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written …
The November NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released yesterday, December 8, 2015. The headline of the Small Business Economic Trends report is “Small Business Optimism Collapses In November After Three Stagnant Months.” The Index of Small Business Optimism dropped 1.3 points in November to 94.8. Here are some excerpts from that I find particularly …