The December Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 10, 2015. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists Are Convinced Fed Will Raise Rates in December.” As indicated in the article, 65 economists were surveyed, although not every economist answered every question.
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
Since their policy meeting in late October, Fed officials have sent strong signals they might begin to raise the fed-funds rate in December after holding it near zero for seven years. Chairwoman Janet Yellen last week told lawmakers the U.S. economy “is doing well and that is the reason that it is a live option for us in our December meeting to discuss…whether or not it’s appropriate to raise rates.” A solid jobs report for November appeared to clear the way for such a move.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 15.0%; the average response in November’s survey was 13.56%.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2015: 2.2%
full-year 2016: 2.6%
full-year 2017: 2.4%
full-year 2017: 2.3%
December 2015: 5.0%
December 2016: 4.7%
December 2017: 4.6%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2015: 2.33%
December 2016: 2.86%
December 2017: 3.35%
December 2015: .7%
December 2016: 2.1%
December 2017: 2.3%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2015: $41.24
for 12/31/2016: $50.36
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2064.40 as post is written