America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
In the last post (“Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 1Q 2014“) I displayed a long-term chart depicting Total Household Net Worth as a percentage of GDP. For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1949:Q4 to 2014:Q1). The last value (as of June 5, 2014) …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk blog post of June 5, 2014 titled “Fed’s Q1 Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth at Record High.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“ : (click on chart to enlarge image) As …
The June 2014 Livingston Survey (pdf) published on June 4, 2014 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: June 30, 2014 1910 Dec. 31, 2014 1950 June 30, 2015 1999.80 Dec. 31, 2015 2026.50 These figures represent the median value across the …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the May 29, 2014 update is -1.228. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve …
On June 3, 2014 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Ticks Up to -14 in May.” The subtitle is “May saw the highest weekly confidence reading since January.” Notable excerpts include: Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index increased to -14 in May, its highest monthly reading in 2014 so far. May’s economic confidence reading, …